July 7, 2017:
The Trump “sugar rush” is over, yet we have landed on an economic sweet spot for inflation (approximately 2%). This combined with modest worldwide GDP growth, near full employment, and cautious hope on tax reform has lead global financial markets (both stocks and bonds) to READ MORE Continue reading
April 5, 2017:
While the upticks in both U.S. sentiment and the stock market are in part a reflection of the optimism over President Trump’s pro-growth plans, there is more to the story. The other main contributor is the collective recognition that we finally have a moderately growing… READ MORE…
January 6, 2017:
A large part of Trump’s political capital will be used to rewrite the tax code to lower personal and corporate tax rates and limit deductions (besides replacing Obamacare, increasing infrastructure spending, rolling back excess government regulations and probably a little tightening on immigration and increased nationalism to give red meat to his constituents). Therefore, an initial assumption would be to expect lower tax receipts and rising government budget deficit after the proposed tax cuts. Continue reading
November 22, 2016: After 2 weeks of absorbing the U.S. election results, watching the financial markets and reading countless market and economic commentaries, we offer the following condensed thoughts.
What was Expected?
While the election was thought to be close, the odds makers and thus the financial markets were clearly expecting a Clinton victory. That meant continued heavy entitlements, higher taxes, very low GDP growth, low inflation and a decent chance of a recession in 2017.
October 17, 2016: The calm before the storm. Developed world financial markets (U.S., Japan and Europe) have become numb to the long-term effects of unprecedented monetary stimulus. The companies in the S&P500 are now reporting their 6th quarterly drop in revenue and 4th quarterly drop in corporate profits. The labor recovery peaked 8 months ago (job openings and unemployment) as weak hiring is catching up to weak GDP growth. After a 1% revised first half U.S. GDP growth, the second half of the year was supposed to bounce back – it has not. Yet both stock and bond markets remain near all-time highs amidst very low (by historic standards) volatility. The developed world stock markets have benefited from very low cost borrowing to facilitate share buy-backs, artificially creating higher earnings per share; bonds have benefited from Central Bank buy-backs as well. Continue reading
August 2016: Optivest Wealth Management has been nominated and chosen as a 2016 finalist for the Invest in Others Charitable Foundation’s Corporate Philanthropy Award for its company-wide generous giving initiatives. Optivest advisors and employees are proud that the firm continuously donates 10% of gross revenue to philanthropic organizations worldwide through the Optivest Foundation.
“Invest in Others amplifies the charitable work of financial advisors, employees, and their firms by sharing their stories and awarding funding to the non-profits they care so much about.” Click here to learn more about the Invest in Others Charitable Foundation.
July 1, 2016: The steep drop in financial markets early in the year aggravated fears of a near-term recession. Since then the markets have rebounded allowing fears to subside, yet we now have warning signs from the U.S. economy itself. Hiring is weak, sales are slipping and new business investments are dropping. Manufacturing remains weak and corporate profits have not gained ground in 3 quarters. Continue reading
May 20, 2016: I have been helping high net-worth families with their finances for almost 40 years as a professional investment advisor, as a Tiger 21 peer and as a friend. Based on my experiences, after a wealthy family has successfully organized their retirement income for the first generation and helped their children launch, many change focus to preparing their heirs for future inheritance. However, the family’s primary concern needs to be preparing the heir who will accede to the responsibility of stewarding the family resources after the head of household passes; most often, this is the spouse. Continue reading
April 8, 2016: What a wild first quarter! After the stock and corporate bond markets had one of the steepest sell-offs during the first 7 weeks of the year (and the S&P 500 was down over 10%), the markets rebounded to end the quarter virtually unchanged for the year. As frustrating and scary as this was, Optivest clients were aided by our defensive start, purchases on dips and continued advances on our REIT holdings, which collectively resulted in one of our best quarters ever.
U.S. Economy –
The year started off with one of the biggest “false alarm” market scares in years. Worries increased about global slowing/recession, deflation, Chinese devaluation, falling profits, excessive emerging market debt and corporate defaults due to cheap oil. The usual “safe haven” investments – gold, U.S. Treasuries and Swiss Franc – rallied, gaining momentum born from fear. Finally, oil appeared to bounce at about $28/barrel enticing “bottom fishers” who first gave the equity and commodity markets a push, then a retest of the bottom, followed by a 7 week rally ending right back where they started the year. “Safe haven” price gains have held while all of the worries remain, indicating future volatility… CONTINUE READING HERE
February 19, 2016: I recently attended my second annual Tiger 21 conference where some of the biggest names in the investment world shared insights alongside 379 private investors of Tiger 21 (whose collective worth is over $40 billion). I wanted to share some valuable takeaways from the headliner speakers with you… READ MORE HERE